MATH IN SPORTS BETTING
The math in betting is critical.
The entire bookmaker business is built on this exact science.
In 22 bet app you cannot make a profit, relying only on your guesses, your inner instinct. Understanding this concept distinguishes a winner from a loser, a successful player from a negative player who regularly loses his savings at the bookmaker's office. Most sports betting enthusiasts lose money, and it is not at all difficult to take a little time and understand the basic mathematical concepts in sports betting. If you want to join the ranks of profitable betters, having gained knowledge of how mathematics works in sports betting, then this article will help you with this.
THEORY OF PROBABILITY
Let's start the analysis of this interesting topic with general concepts. The first question that has to do with the theory of probability is bookmaker odds. These numbers should reflect the likelihood of a particular event: victory, total, handicap. How to calculate odds using bookmaker odds? It's very simple, you need to divide the unit by the set coefficient:
For example, take the English Premier League match between Arsenal and Manchester United. The bookmaker has set the following quotes for this fight: Arsenal win 2.05; draw 3.60; win for Manchester United - 3.80. We search for the probabilities of all three events and we get: Victoria of Arsenal is 49% likely, teams will play with a 28% probability, Manchester has only a 26% chance of success. Ideally, this amount should be 100%, but adding all three numbers, we get 103%. The extra 3% in this case is the bookmaker's percentage, or the margin that he takes for his services. 3 percent is a small margin. The bookmaker makes it in such a way as to lure a larger stream of bets on top meetings. For less popular matches and for more "stingy" offices, the margin can reach 8 percent or more. Subtracting the margin percentage, we get the true value: 48% - 27% - 25%. Having recalculated the obtained data into coefficients using the inverse formula, we see: 2.08 - 3.70 - 4.
Some people argue that you cannot make a profit through betting, since all the profit will go to the margin. But this would be true if the bookmaker's odds were a real reflection of the likelihood of an event. Fortunately for bettors, no one can predict the outcome of a future match with absolute accuracy, not even a bookmaker. Moreover, the offices deliberately make mistakes, reducing the margin on "high-profile" matches, and in unpopular championships they expose quotes based only on statistics and not taking into account other important factors that affect motivation and the game itself. Such undervalued bets are called value bets. The successful search for value bets is the goal for a successful player. Read more: 22 bet download
So how can sports betting mathematics help you determine if your choice is valuable? This is the second question related to probability theory. To do this, you need to estimate your own probability of an event and convert it into a coefficient. If it turns out to be lower than the odds of the bookmaker, then this is a value.
To determine the chances of an event, we turn to statistics. If we want to know the guests' chances of winning, we take into account the percentage of away wins and the number of home defeats of the hosts. We determine the arithmetic mean, and we get the chances of P2 in percent. Then we divide 100 by the obtained result and get our coefficient.
Read more in Wikipedia: Probability Theory